Investigación
Artículos en revistas, documentos de trabajo, capítulos de libro y comentarios. Las notas de política e informes están en Escritos y medios.
Artículos en revistas
Resumen
Organized crime violence, produced by gangs, mafias, and drug traffickers that fight one another for profit rather than to capture the state, shapes economic activity and welfare, most acutely in the Americas. This article reviews its causes, costs, and remedies. Two claims organize it. First, the industrial organization of criminal markets—the number of armed actors, their integration, their relationship with the state, and the contestability of territory—is a central determinant of violence that standard crime models omit, even holding the rents at stake fixed. Second, enforcement acts in general equilibrium, so crackdowns can fragment markets and raise violence, and falling homicide can mask rising extortion or displacement. Illegal drug markets are the principal source of these rents, so supply-side enforcement reorganizes the trade while cutting demand shrinks the prize. These harms reach firms, workers, educational outcomes, and institutions. The main obstacle is measuring how criminal groups govern.
Resumen
We helped design and evaluate a statebuilding intervention in Medellín, Colombia. The municipal government dramatically intensified nonpolice state presence in 40 neighborhoods over 20 months. On average, perceptions of security and legitimacy changed negligibly, suggesting that returns to statebuilding investments are generally low, at least within electoral cycles. Prespecified heterogeneity analysis, however, reveals significant increases in security and legitimacy where state governance began relatively higher, while impacts were null or possibly negative where it began lower. This suggests increasing rather than diminishing returns to statebuilding. The divergence apparently resulted from city officials under-delivering in initially lower-governance sectors. One reason might be “start-up costs” in statebuilding. Alternatively, both initial state penetration and incentives to implement new programs might depend on neighborhoods’ ability to hold agencies accountable. Whatever their source, increasing returns could drive persistent “neglect traps”—channeling political attention and investment to areas where state penetration is already robust, reinforcing existing disparities.
Resumen
This study examines the implementation outcomes of Parceros Creadores, a municipal government program in Medellín, Colombia, which deployed novice psychologists to deliver a cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) protocol to youth aged 14–28 years in neighborhoods controlled by local gangs. Twelve psychologists wrote reflective essays about their implementation experience. We analyzed the essays using reflexive thematic analysis and organized findings around 4 implementation outcomes: acceptability, feasibility, appropriateness, and fidelity, with workforce-capacity development examined as a precondition for sustainability. Providers reported high acceptability driven by therapeutic bond formation in a context of institutional distrust. Feasibility obstacles included youth distrust of government programs, dropout linked to competing survival needs and bureaucratic barriers to psychiatric referrals. Psychologists perceived that youth adopted CBT techniques in daily life, which they read as evidence for the appropriateness of the protocol. Providers adapted the protocol for neurodivergent participants, incorporated family psychoeducation and adjusted session modality. The experience generated professional competencies that constitute workforce capacity for sustained service delivery. Psychologists also perceived a reduction in mental health stigma among participants. The findings position novice professionals as a distinct implementer category in the task-shifting literature and identify design features that may transfer to similar urban settings in low- and middle-income countries.
Resumen
Criminal groups govern millions worldwide. Even in strong states, gangs resolve disputes and provide security. Why do these duopolies of coercion emerge? Often, gangs fill vacuums of official power, suggesting that increasing state presence should crowd out criminal governance. We show, however, that state and gang rule can be strategic complements. In particular, gangs could minimize seizures and arrests by keeping neighbourhoods orderly and loyal. If true, increasing state presence could increase incentives for gang rule. In Medellín, Colombia, criminal leaders told us they rule to protect drug rents from police. We test gang responses to state presence using a geographic discontinuity. Internal border changes in 1987 assigned blocks to be closer or further from state security for three decades. Gangs exogenously closer to state presence developed more governance over time. They primarily did so in neighbourhoods with the greatest potential drug rents. This suggests new strategies for countering criminal governance.
Resumen
We study criminal skills production and persistence by looking at the universe of incarceration spells and violent and non-violent property crime reports in Colombia. Leveraging detailed and geo-coded information, we find that property crime reports are higher around prisons on the days inmates are released. Two types of offenders drive the impacts: (i) property crime specialists—inmates with a prior conviction for violent or non-violent theft; and (ii) trainees—inmates with different criminal records but who interacted heavily with specialists during incarceration. We examine whether participation in rehabilitation programs or longer prison spells mitigate these effects and find no evidence for either type of offender. Although we are unaware of how many crimes these offenders would commit absent incarceration, these results suggest that incarceration’s specific deterrence or rehabilitation effects might be weak for these populations and that, in some circumstances, prison can foster rather than prevent crime.
Resumen
I study the effects of prison quality on recidivism using individual-level data from Colombia. To estimate causal effects, I leverage the quasi-random assignment of inmates to newer, less crowded, and higher service prisons. For inmates assigned to newer facilities, I find that the probability of returning to prison within one year is 36% lower. Criminal capital, access to rehabilitation programs, and negative prison experiences, which could trigger changes in intrinsic preferences over illegal occupations, seem to be important mechanisms. The program led to substantial welfare gains, even when assuming a low social cost per crime.
Resumen
In 2016, the city of Bogotá doubled police patrols and intensified city services on high-crime streets. They did so based on a criminological consensus that such place-based programs not only decrease crime, but also have beneficial spillovers for nearby streets. To test this, we worked with Bogotá to experiment on an unprecedented scale. We randomly assigned 1,919 streets to either 8 months of doubled police patrols, greater municipal services, both, or neither. Such scale brings econometric challenges. Spatial spillovers in dense networks introduce bias and complicate variance estimation through “fuzzy clustering”. But a design-based approach and randomization inference produce valid hypothesis tests in such settings. In contrast to the consensus, we find intensifying state presence did not generate substantively meaningful or statistically significant reductions in crime. Our estimates suggest modest direct effects but with crime displaced nearby, especially property crimes. Confidence intervals suggest we can rule out total reductions in crime of more than 2% from the two interventions.
Resumen
From the U.S. to Colombia to China, millions of public surveillance cameras are at the core of crime prevention strategies. Yet, we know little about the effects of surveillance cameras on criminal behavior, especially in developing economies. We study an installation program in Medellín and find that the quasi‐random allocation of cameras led to a decrease in crimes and arrests. With no increase in the monitoring capacity and no chance to use camera footage in prosecution, these results suggest offenders were deterred rather than incapacitated. We test for spillovers and find no evidence of crime displacement or diffusion of benefits to surrounding locations.
Resumen
Objectives Test direct, spillover, and aggregate effects of hot spots policing on crime in a high-crime environment. Methods We identified 967 hot spot street segments and randomly assigned 384 to a six-month increase in police patrols. To account for the complications resulting from a large experimental sample in a dense network of streets, we use randomiza- tion inference for hypothesis testing. We also use non-experimental streets to test for spillovers onto non-hot spots and examine aggregate effects citywide. Results Our results show an improvement in short-term security perceptions and a reduction in car thefts, but no direct effects on other crimes or satisfaction with polic- ing services. We see larger effects in the least secure places, especially for short-term security perceptions, car thefts, and assaults. We find no evidence of crime displace- ment but rather a decrease in car thefts in nearby hot spots and a decrease in assaults in nearby non-hot spots. We estimate that car thefts decreased citywide by about 11%. Conclusions Our study highlights the importance of context when implementing hot spots policing. What seems to work in the USA or even in Bogot´a is not as respon- sive in Medell´ın (and vice versa). Further research—especially outside the USA—is needed to understand the role of local crime patterns and police capacity on the effectiveness of hot spots policing.
Resumen
Purpose This study aims to build on embedded approaches to stakeholder management and examines how organizational decision-makers consider social responsibility toward proximal stakeholders in crises that encompass an entire system of stakeholder relationships. Design/methodology/approach Within a criterion-based sample of eight Latin American private universities, this paper develops in-depth exploratory case studies to examine the prioritization of stakeholders in higher education institutions’ decision-making during the outbreak of the COVID-19 crisis. Findings Contrary to the notion that during crises organizations prioritize stakeholders that provide resources that are critical to survival, this study finds that in contextual crises stakeholder management is informed by social responsibility. In addition, the findings suggest that crises may be tipping points for changes toward mission-driven approaches to governance. Practical implications Acknowledging the roles of social responsibility and proximity in stakeholder management during contextual crises allows for more informed governance of organizations that face disruptions in their system of stakeholder relations. Originality/value This study contributes unique insights into the decision-maker’s prioritization of stakeholders during the COVID-19 crisis. The uncertainty associated with the emerging “new normal” allowed for an extreme test of socially embedded versus resource-oriented approaches to stakeholder management.
Resumen
Major histocompatibility complex class II deficiency is a rare case of PID. Specific recommendations for hematopoietic stem cell transplant, the only curative treatment option, are still lacking. This meta‐analysis aims to identify the factors associated with better prognosis in these patients. Thirteen articles reporting 63 patients with major histocompatibility complex class II deficiency that underwent hematopoietic stem cell transplant were included. The median age for hematopoietic stem cell transplant was 18 months. The most common source of transplant was bone marrow, with alternative sources as umbilical cord blood emerging during recent years. The highest proportion of engraftment was seen with umbilical cord. Engraftment was higher in patients with matched donors, with better overall survival in patients with reduced‐intensity conditioning. Graft‐vs‐host disease developed in 65% of the patients, with grades I‐II being the most frequently encountered. There was a higher mortality in patients with myeloablative conditioning and no engraftment. There was an inverse correlation between survival and stage of graft‐vs‐host disease. The main cause of mortality was infectious disease, mostly secondary to viral infections. Ideally, matched grafts should be used, and reduced‐intensity conditioning should be considered to reduce early post‐transplant complications. GVHD and viral prophylaxis are fundamental.
Resumen
This paper examines the effect of the formalization of land property rights in the war against illicit crops, using the case of Colombia. We argue that as a consequence of the increase in state presence and visibility, municipalities with a higher level of formalization of their land property rights witnessed a greater reduction in the area allocated to illicit crops. We hypothesize that this is due to the possibility of obtaining more benefits in the newly installed institutional environment when land is formalized, and the increased cost of growing illicit crops on formal relative to informal land. We find that a one-standard-deviation increase in the formality index for smallholders is related to a reduction in the share of municipal area allocated to coca crops of 0.101 percentage points. That is, the formalization of one additional hectare of land with respect to small landholders in an average municipality in the year 2000 is associated with a decrease of approximately 1.4 hectares of land allocated to coca within that particular municipality, ceteris paribus. These results remain robust to a number of sensitivity analyses. Our findings contribute to empirical evidence on the positive effects of formal land property rights and effective policies in the war on drugs.
Documentos de trabajo
Capítulos de libro
Revisiones de literatura
Resumen
This VoxDevLit reviews research on the roots and development impacts of organised crime. Weak state capacity, dense local social networks, and incentives from illicit markets enable the rise and expansion of criminal organisations. These groups exert territorial control, engage in extortion, recruit children and, in some cases, establish forms of criminal governance and political influence. Their presence has persistent negative effects on economic growth, labour market outcomes, and human capital, while also undermining social trust through violence, corruption, and parallel authority structures. We examine policy responses—including policing reforms, prison rehabilitation, and preventive interventions such as conditional cash transfers, school-based programmes to shift norms or raise labour market expectations, and cognitive behavioural therapy. We highlight that these approaches can show greater effectiveness in reducing violence and recruitment when implemented alongside stronger formal institutions.